The word predicament derives from the early 15th century Late Latin praedicamentum, meaning “something predicted, that which is asserted.” Furthermore, “unpleasant situation” was an associated meaning first recorded in the 1580s. [ref]
The claim is that problems have solutions and predicaments have only outcomes.
The distinction boils down to this: problems have solutions; predicaments have outcomes. A solution to a problem fixes it, returning all to its original condition. Once a suitable solution can be found and made to work, a problem can be solved. A predicament, by contrast, has no solution. Faced with a predicament, people can develop responses, but not solutions. Those responses may succeed, they may fail, or they may fall somewhere in between, but no response can erase a predicament. Predicaments have outcomes that can be managed, but circumstances cannot be returned to their original state. This chapter pinpoints the need to identify predicaments such as depletion of energy and hence the focus of efforts should be on managing the outcome. [ref]
I have repeated the claim, but have come to note that all solutions are outcomes, even if all outcomes are not solutions to those modern humans having or defining the problem. For metastatic moderns, a solution must include their continuance in a state of prosperity. The keyword in the second sentence quoted above is ‘suitable’. That metastatic modernity has no long term continuance is to note, beyond which the information becomes a distraction.
The ‘suitable’ can only reference modern humans as distinct from Nature, specifically modern metastatic humans. A Nature centric view can only view modern humans as a subsystem, as a rouge (for a time) primate, and cannot make a distinction between a solution as a viable long term outcome (a system which evolvably persists). To make the ‘no solutions’ claim for metastatic modernity is to think from within the worldview of the metastatic ones.
From my point of view, all metastatic moderns are ‘anthropocene enthusiasts’ [E.O. Wilson] and all doomers are metastatic moderns who see no solution for the condition of being humans like themselves. This leads to some form of ‘we are so fucked’ thinking from YouTube pundits to Guy McPherson (failed public intellectual) or William Rees (successful public intellectual). The ‘have only outcomes’ claim means one can stop wasting time think about any ‘solutions’ (e.g. Jack Alpert’s or mine) and focus on explaining why we are so outcomed.
Jack Alpert’s solution is 30–50 million modern humans persist for 300 plus years in three megacities where each individual is provided 96,000 kWh/year, the precondition for living like a prosperous modern human with 640 energy slave equivalents serving them (in 2023 the average Canadian was served by 666 energy slaves). A new social contract would require recognizing and accepting limits, i.e. some humans could live like modern humans but not be rapacious takers, consumers of a planet for the taking.
Alpert’s solution is not ‘suitable’ and no modern humans currently can consider it, but the condition of 30–50 million modern humans persisting for a few centuries is mass/joules possible. The social contract puts limits on behavior and the need for 96,000 kWh/year/person determines population size. The three possible megacities are too far apart to be in conflict, and as no modern human would consider living in Nature as a nomadic hunt-gatherer-forager-low intensity farmer, the 30–50 million will leave 95% of the planet unoccupied. The condition of being a metastatic expansionist ends but the condition of being a modern human does not.
Two potentially viable solutions remain. All humans, including the 99.9999% who are modern humans, go extinct. Not a ‘suitable’ solution from a human centric point of view, but from the Gaian system’s (Nature’s) view, despite having none, human extinction will end the Anthropocene (and Anthropocene mass extinction event despite feedback delays). Life on Earth doesn’t form political parties or have a point of view, but human extinction will end the Anthropocene (with biosphere recovery in 15–20 million years).
Given that metastatic modernity is a non-viable, dissipative, non-evolvable form (100% chance of extinction), the other solution is that some humans who are not modern humans (<10k San/Hadza), or some modern humans who renormalize (e.g. Tairona), persist beyond the extinction of modernity to become evolvable animals again (an outcome/solution all modern humans repudiate).
The difference between humans past (pre-expansionist) and humans future (post-expansionist) is that the form humans take in the future must include the equivalent of an immune system (defence system) able to recognize the metastatic form of human when (not if) it arises and neutralize (end) it to prevent its metastatic growth having the outcome we modern humans are (a non-viable onward-to-glory dissipative structure — for a time).
Problems? Solutions? Predicament? Outcomes? These are words to distract the fly in their fly bottle by bewitching their intelligence by means of language.
There are no political solutions that are acceptable. Be the product of a community of 20–30 and end the condition of being a political animal. Problem solved as evidenced by a viable outcome within a few millennia.